Class Summary 9/2/11

Oil


In 1970, it was projected that there were 531 billion barrels of oil left in the ground, and that humans consumed roughly 16.5 billion barrels of the stuff per year. Someone who is mathematically inclined could determine that meant we had until about 2002, or 32 years, of petroleum expenditure left. Since I regularly fill up my car with what I believe is gasoline, these [likely self-proclaimed] experts were clearly incorrect. In fact, it is doubtful that we'll ever run out of oil. This is true for two reasons:

1) The clichéd adage that time is money absolutely applies to this scenario. As readily accessible oil reserves are depleted, it will take more and more time and effort to locate new, feasible drilling locations.

2) History has proven that humans don't run out of fixed resources, but have extinguished renewable ones. Past uproars about running out of coal sang the same tune as the one-hit-wonder that is currently attributed to oil.


The two points illustrated above boil down to the same concept: people respond to incentives. The rising price of oil, due to the immense effort it takes to find and harvest it, will incentivize people to conceptualize more sustainable forms of energy. For those concerned for the environment, there will be more harm caused to the earth if we don't run out of oil. Take away the pressure of dry oil barrels, and no one has any incentive to discover cleaner fuel.